Revenue — rolling 12-month
Actual (Jan–Jun) · AI forecast with confidence band (Jul–Dec) · Reference: prior year same period
AI observation
Q3 dip in prior year (shown) was driven by a single large account pause. No comparable signal detected in current pipeline. Forecast assumes seasonal pattern does not repeat — confidence band widens in Sep to reflect this uncertainty.
Pipeline by stage
Deal value and count · AI probability-adjusted value shown where different
Prospecting
$2.1M
18 deals
AI adjusts $2.9M → $1.4M expected: low engagement on 6 deals
Negotiation
$1.1M
4 deals
AI observation
Qualified stage is over-weighted relative to historical close rates. AI-adjusted pipeline value is $6.9M vs. reported $8.4M. Recommend re-qualification sprint on 6 low-engagement deals before quarter-end.
Account churn risk
AI-scored daily · ranked by ARR at risk · signal drivers shown
| Account |
ARR |
Risk score |
Signal |
|
Redmont Ind.
|
$210K |
|
47d no activity |
|
Cascade Partners
|
$145K |
|
Support ↑3× |
|
NorthLight LLC
|
$98K |
|
Renewal 38d |
|
Meridian Co
|
$176K |
|
Deal stalled |
|
Fargate Global
|
$330K |
|
Usage 91% cap |
|
Holloway & Sons
|
$204K |
|
Expanding team |
AI observation
Redmont, Cascade, and NorthLight share the same Q1 2025 onboarding cohort. A targeted success review of that cohort could recover $350K–$450K in at-risk ARR. Coordinating outreach as a cohort rather than individually increases success probability by ~40% based on historical data.
AI win probability — open opportunities
Rep estimate shown alongside model-adjusted probability · delta indicates systematic optimism bias
| Opportunity |
AI probability |
Rep est. |
Value |
| Fargate Global — Enterprise |
|
89% |
95% |
$450K |
| Holloway & Sons — Renewal+ |
|
74% |
80% |
$310K |
| Meridian Co — Platform |
|
51% |
75% |
$280K |
| Westbrook MFG — Starter |
|
38% |
60% |
$95K |
| Arctis Logistics — Pro |
|
22% |
55% |
$140K |
AI observation
Rep estimates average 73% vs. model-adjusted 55% — an 18pt optimism gap consistent with historical patterns. AI-adjusted expected value of these 5 deals: $894K vs. rep-estimated $1.26M. Recommend aligning Q3 forecast to model-adjusted figure.
Next-best-action
AI-prioritized by expected revenue impact · rationale shown for each
1
Redmont Industries
Executive call within 48 hours
47-day inactivity + competitor mention on last recorded call. Probability of save drops below 20% after 60 days. Historical save rate on executive-level intervention: 58%.
$210K at risk
2
Fargate Global
Upsell to Enterprise tier — this week
Headcount +40% in 90 days. Usage at 91% of plan cap. Window is optimal now — upsell probability declines once they hit the cap and experience friction.
$120K expansion
3
NorthLight LLC
Send renewal proposal today
Renewal in 38 days. Deals with proposals sent 30+ days early close 2.3× faster than last-minute renewals. At 51% risk score, proactive outreach is the primary lever.
$98K renewal
4
Meridian Co
Request C-suite introduction
Stalled 22 days at VP level. Similar deals closed 68% faster after executive engagement. Current rep contact may lack budget authority.
$280K pipeline
Monthly recurring revenue
$575K
▲ +7.5% MoM
Net revenue retention
108%
▲ +2pts vs. prior period
Avg. days to close
42d
▼ −6d vs. prior period · improving
Customer health score avg.
74
▼ −3pts · 4 accounts declining